I’m taking my shot at making some predictions for the coming year. Will I be right? Will I be wrong? You’ll only know if you stick around for the next 365 days.
Here we go -
1. Prices will drop. The fees charged to family law clients will begin a fairly steep downward descent. It will be tough to tell that it’s happening because most practices are so small and there isn’t much of anything being done to collect data. The increased competition from unemployed and new lawyers opening solo practices and competing on price will drive the trend.
Additionally, clients will hesitate to pay reasonable fees as they continue to be squeezed by a tight economy and limited credit. They’ll be especially hesitant to pay decent fees in light of their new perceptions of what’s expensive after experiencing an “economic reset” during the recession.
2. Document preparation services (cheap, non-lawyer) will grow dramatically. Services like legalzoom will continue to thrive and their market will expand. They already do well in a middle and upper-middle income market. Clients will increasingly see family law attorneys as a necessary evil that only need to be hired if things get “really ugly.” These document services will be the beneficiaries most of the pent up demand resulting from the recession.
3. Some family law practices will cease to exist. Of course, this happens every year, but this year it will happen more than usual. These practitioners will find alternative careers. They won’t continue to practice law. You’ll know it’s happening when they move to executive suites or “virtual offices.” When you hear “working from home” – think “not really working.” Many of these lawyers, once they quit, will experience a shocking level of happiness.
4. Accountants, mental health professionals and non-lawyer mediators will handle an increasing number of family law cases. Clients will be attracted to these professionals as an alternative to lawyers. Clients will be thrilled with a lower conflict alternative. Some lawyers will put up a fight over the unauthorized practice of law issue. They’ll lose. Many of these accountants, mental health professionals and mediators, after they take on this work, will experience a shocking level of unhappiness.
5. Websites and blogs will decline in importance as legal marketing tools. Nearly every family law practice has a web presence now and the impact of any single site becomes increasingly insignificant. Search engine optimization will continue to matter but it’s importance will decline. Increasingly, prospective clients will turn to social media outlets to make purchasing decisions regarding professional services.
6. Pay per click advertising (like search engine optimization) will decline in importance. Again, this is the result of the overwhelming number of competitors in the space. The return on investment will continue to decline.
7. Attorney review websites will become far more important as prospective clients turn to their peers for recommendations. Some lawyers will game the system. They’ll be called out by social media participants and will suffer as a result. They will seriously damage their reputations. They’ll garner negative attention in the mainstream media, as well, given the novelty of their activities and their social status.
8. Virtual family law practices (basically online service delivery systems) will grow in popularity among attorneys. Lawyers will love the idea because they’ll buy the argument that they’ll get new clients online without having to engage in sales activities. They will be quickly disappointed when the expected revenues fail to materialize. Sadly, prospective clients won’t want what they’re selling. They’ll be buying from the non-lawyer document preparation services mentioned earlier.
9. Social media will play a vital role in practice development. Marketing via connecting with other professionals, curators of resources, and influencers will be critical. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your perspective, most lawyers won’t participate and will lose out their competitors that work hard with these audiences.
1o. Most family law practices will move some of their data to the cloud. Most likely they’ll move their email. Some will move their accounting. Some will move their practice management systems. We’ll pay less money to our IT support people and more money to the providers of hosted services.
11. Voluntary bar associations will begin to crumble. Groups like the ABA and the AAML will suffer. They’ll be replaced by networking options like LinkedIn, online continuing education providers, for-profit associations, email list groups, etc.
12. Lawyers will be barraged with warning about the dangers of Facebook, Twitter and cloud computing. They’ll perk up when they hear the frightening things that might happen if they make changes or do new things and they’ll quickly determine that they’re so busy that they can’t do these things anyway.
That’s it. That’s all I’ve got. I’ll monitor the situation and report back at the end of next year.
Many of my predictions aren’t very upbeat, huh? I think there are numerous things every practitioner can do to buck these trends. I’ll be writing about them, daily, for the next 365 days. The question is – will you act to make your 2010 a great year? Or will you be the frog in the pot, sitting still as the temperature rises, and you slowly boil to death, without ever realizing what’s happening? Don’t let that happen.
Don’t be the frog.
What do you think? Am I right? Am I wrong? My crystal ball might be fuzzy. Agree? Disagree? Have some predictions of your own? Please add your input in the comments below.
Have a great New Year. I’ll talk to you in 2010.
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Lee Rosen has practiced family law for more than twenty years. With three offices, 